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Like reference numerals refer to corresponding parts throughout the several views of the drawings. Note that most of the reference numerals include one or two digit numbers designating relative positions in the drawings.Q:
What is the expected profit of flipping a fair coin with probability of success increasing towards 1?
We start with \$100. I flip a fair coin. If the outcome is heads, I give \$100 plus whatever I get if the outcome is tails. If the probability of heads is decreasing over time (say from 0.95 to 0.75), then how should we interpret the profit that we should expect to make at the start of the game as well as what should be our expected profit after the game?
A:
This is an Efron-Schwab problem.
First, you are asked to define the profit that you make in one round:
It should be very clear that this is, more or less, the probability that you win in this round. If you lose, you are broke, and have zero profit.
If you are lucky, and win, you make \$100; if you are unlucky, and lose, you lose \$100.
Overall, the profit you make in a round is then the expected value of a random variable from the Binomial distribution. In your case, this is:
\$ P(i=1) * \$100 + P(i=0) * 0
= P(i=1) * \$100 + (1-P(i=1)) * 0
= (P(i=1) + 0) * \$100
= P(i=1) * \$100
This is exactly what you have in your setup.
Then, let’s define the profit that you make in one round as a random variable which takes values $0, 100$, and $-100$. You are given the probability that you win $\mu_t$ at time $t$ and have some strategy $s_t$.
In particular,
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